Therese here. Today’s guest is historical novelist Sandra Gulland, whose Josephine B. Trilogy–a trilogy about Josephine Bonaparte and the Napoleonic era–was published in fifteen countries and sold over a million copies. Her follow up to that popular series, Mistress of the Sun, a novel set in 17th century France about the Sun King–Louis XIV–and his mistress, required years of research and writing, and when published in 2008 immediately hit the bestseller lists.
Sandra, apart from knowing a thing or two about penning a novel, is also a former book editor. She’s with us today to talk about something we don’t often discuss–numbers. Selling books. And what those sales–or lack thereof–may mean for our careers in the long term. Enjoy!
Tyranny of “The Numbers”
N.Y. agent Donald Maass, in his excellent new book, The Breakout Novelist, devotes a chapter to “the numbers.” Don’t read this chapter if you wish to sleep.
The fact is that it’s hard to get published, but even harder to stay published. Success, in the guise of a large advance or an initial best-seller, has ruined many a promising writer’s career. Why? Because of “The Numbers.”
Say your first book is a hit. The champagne bottles are popping. There is nothing greater. For your second book, you will be offered a respectable advance, based on the expectation of another home run. A large advance can be an albatross, however, because if your second book fails to sell as well as expected—if it fails, in the words of the trade, to earn out—your career as a published writer is in trouble.
Why?
Because in considering your third book for publication, your publisher will only look at how well your last book sold. They know you’re a promising talent; they well understand that there are ups and downs in any writer’s career; they know your first book was a hit, but they are forced to this simplistic numeric model because bookstores—and by this read bookstore chains—will be putting in orders based only on that number: on the number of copies your last book sold.
If your last book did not sell well, or as well as expected, the chains will order fewer copies—consequently fewer copies will be displayed in their bookstores and fewer books bought . . . and so the cycle goes, for your next book, and the next, and the next, down and down and down.
“Listen to me carefully now,” writes Donald Maass, ” . . . there’s no bouncing back . . . . Computerized inventory tracking has changed the game.”
That tracking system is BookScan, which records retail book sales in the chains. It used to be that access to this database was exclusive to bookstores, agents and publishers—for a price—but now it’s available to authors free through an Author Central account on Amazon.com. If you have a book for sale on Amazon, you can see how many copies of your book sold last week, and where. You can compare the sales over four weeks or eight weeks. You can see the sales displayed on a graph. You can find out which edition sells best—Kindle? paperback? hardcover?—and how many copies sold in Chicago, Baton Rouge or Los Angeles . . . .
Author beware. The knowledge can easily derail you, either with euphoria over a sudden spike in sales, or depression over a plummeting dive. I’ve experienced both, and have concluded that it’s best not to look. With a few super-star exceptions, The Numbers for most writers these days are in a dive. As Donald Maass concludes, the only solution is to write well, and let The Numbers be damned.
At the risk of aiding and abetting, here’s where to go to set up an Author Account at Author Central. Once you have that, log in and click on “Sales Info” and you’ll see your sales for the week before. The Numbers are posted each Friday.
For an excellent article related to this subject, read “The Business Rusch: You are not alone.”
Sandra Gulland is the internationally-published author of the Josephine B. Trilogy and Mistress of the Sun. And yes, she’s trying not to think about The Numbers. Learn more about her and her novels on her website and blog, and by following her on Facebook and Twitter. Write on!
Photo courtesy Flickr’s runran
Thanks, Sandra, for the reaffirmation that the name of the game is ‘write your best story’ to which you have added ‘numbers be damned’. If you want to write numbers, go into accountancy. If you want to write fiction, dig down inside yourself for characters, plot lines and descriptions. No amount of numbers will bring those elements to the surface.
Thanks for the information about Author Central. I love your Josephine Books!
Thanks, Erika!
Interesting post. I wonder if the book store sales figures are so scrupulously followed by publishers any more as they look over their shoulders at ebook sales. I imagine most publishers are ruthlessly trying to work out new business models for the electronic age. Also they are probably getting their lawyers to look at the contracts they have with their writers after J K Rowling did a runner on her publisher and agent.
It’s sad but if publishers had embraced ebooks a couple of years ago, they could be making a lot of money now. For example I know of a crime author with a back catalogue of over 90 published books. If he can extricate himself from his publisher, and I believe he may have succeeded, he stands to make himself a serious amount of money if he self epublishes. If publishers weren’t so ruthless and pay such low %s they could be earning a portion of that money.
I would believe that publishers were taking things seriously if they started to move out of London (and NY) because ebook publishers don’t need a big city presence. I have seen no evidence of them jumping off their gravy train of literati parties and media book launches etc. even though the train is heading for a crash.
Ho hum, they won’t be missed.
Hi Christopher — excellent posts. I agree.
Because The Numbers are largely out of our control, I think DM is right: you’ve got to write the best you can and let the rest fall where it may. Easier said than done, I’m sure, but it’s a good way to stay sane.
Furthermore, there ARE ways to bounce back. Pen names, for example.
And lest anyone worry that a small Number — a small advance — is a signal of doom: did you know that JK Rowling only earned a low 4-figures for Harry Potter #1? (£1500 or £2500, there seems to be some disagreement.) So fret not, my friends. The words are more important than the dollars.
Finally! Just what I need to justify a long, hot bath, a fairly full bottle of sleeping pills, and Leonard Cohen’s “A Thousand Kisses Deep” playing in the background.
As a newbie, I figure I’m screwed no matter what I do. I read stories in lit jnls – some great, some mediocre, some really bad – and recognize it’s often (too often) not talent, but luck. So, I guess I’ll take Maass’s advice and remain ignorant of the world’s acceptance or rejection of my writing.
Let the numbers be damned!
– James Mayor (www.jamesmayor.com)
James, excellent points. I agree.
Woops! I meant that in reply to Jame’s post: Sorry! In spite of the predictions of doom, I think this could well be a very creative and inspiring time to be a “newbie.” Bon courage … with Cohen background music.
Double woops: I meant Christopher’s post. A cup of coffee is in order!
I think this is why electronic publishing is brilliant. I’m still traditionally published, but there is always that fear: what if I tank in the first two weeks? What if there’s a huge ship out, but no sell-through? What if your publisher decides you didn’t perform well enough, and cuts your series off in the middle?
Brick and mortar bookstores don’t give you the “long tail” sales opportunity that ecopies provide. And if you self publish or publish with a smaller (but reputable/professional) epublisher, you won’t have to worry about making the same numbers in the same short time frame.
I still appreciate traditional publishing, but I also see that their tyranny of the numbers is starting to collapse. The elements that they used to use to measure performance, like ship-out and sell-through, are becoming irrelevant. If they cancel a series, you can continue it yourself… and you need less sales to maintain the same income.
Also, with the improved royalties for electronic copies, you don’t have to sell as many books to make the same money — and being in a bookstore never guaranteed you sales, anyway. There’s speed in reporting, and authors have been forced to do the majority of the publicity in most cases anyway.
I agree that writing the best book possible is always the best course of action, and if you obsessively worry about sales, writing your best becomes cramped. But I think that instead of just writers, we’re becoming entrepreneurs, whether we’re self pub or traditional. And I’m very enthusiastic about that. ;)
Exactly, Cathy. E-books are forever: it’s an entirely different dynamic. Word-of-mouth will continue to be the most important aspect of promotion, but at least our books will always be “in stock” when a reader goes looking. Which is one reason I’m in the process of setting up my own e-publishing venture (and loving it).
Really interesting post and I’m SO glad you’re talking about this. Having had some success with the indie route, my agent is trying again with the traditional route and I’m watching both avenues with what I hope is a semi-realistic eye. Thank you for being honest!
Good luck, Sarah — the publishing world is in such turmoil!
This has been a reality of publishing for a long time. I had a series that sold over a million copies with Random House but they wouldn’t even consider another book for me because of declining numbers. The fact their print runs were constantly lower was my fault, I suppose.
That’s heartbreaking, Bob. It’s not much of a consolation, but you are not alone.
It’s hard to even worry about keeping the numbers up until you can get the first book out there. Breaking in and then staying “in” is a steep uphill and even an eternal optimist can be worn down.
Oy! And to think I became a writer because I wanted wealth and fame and stability! Curses, foiled again.
Thanks for the fab post, Sandra. I also loved the hopeful ending of the post on “The Business Rusch.”
At the end of the day, I’m pretty sure 100% of us write because we just can’t help it. Perhaps that’s reason enough. Or, perhaps we’re all just ding-dongs.
Regardless, thank you!
“I’m pretty sure 100% of us write because we just can’t help it.”
Exactly, Sarah!
Thank you, Sandra. This post was fascinating.
Thank you, Kathleen.
It is so hard if that’s the case. I will keep in mind to make sure my first book is a big hit. Thanks Sandra, this gave me something to think about. To all writers out there, do your best.
Betty, yes, it’s hard, but there are so many more options open to writers now.