Publishing: End of an era?
Kathleen Bolton on May 31 2010 | Filed under: REAL WORLD
Garrison Keillor. Man, I love him and his rich voice booming Good Thoughts to writers every morning on NPR’s Writer’s Almanac.
Garrison Keillor thinks publishing as we know it is over.
Call me a pessimist, call me Ishmael, but I think that book publishing is about to slide into the sea.
We live in a literate time, and our children are writing up a storm, often combining letters and numerals (U R 2 1derful), blogging like crazy, reading for hours off their little screens, surfing around from Henry James to Jesse James to the epistle of James to pajamas to Obama to Alabama to Alanon to non-sequiturs, sequins, penguins, penal institutions, and it’s all free, and you read freely, you’re not committed to anything the way you are when you shell out $30 for a book. You’re like a hummingbird in an endless meadow of flowers.
And if you want to write, you just write and publish yourself. No need to ask permission, just open a website. And if you want to write a book, you just write it, send it to Lulu.com or BookSurge at Amazon or PubIt or ExLibris and you’ve got yourself an e-book. No problem. And that is the future of publishing: 18 million authors in America, each with an average of 14 readers, eight of whom are blood relatives. Average annual earnings: $1.75.
We all know the publishing industry is undergoing a sea change. While I don’t think books or storytelling will ever go away, it could be that the amount of people able to make a living solely at writing novels will decline. Keillor certainly thinks so.
Or does the prevalence of PODs and electronic books available only through booksellers like Amazon mean that the consumer, desperate to have someone filter the millions of choices that keep mushrooming, will be even more apt to purchase a book through the traditional means?
As writers, we all wish we had a crystal ball to let us know which way the wind is going to blow in an industry where turmoil seems to be the norm. All we can do is keep on keeping on. But the pace of change is so rapid, that even a year from now we could be looking at a whole different scenario.
On an unrelated note, Happy Memorial Day to all who have served and sacrificed.
Kathleen Bolton
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Ann Aguirre
Porter Anderson
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I too love Garrison Keillor because he is such a wordsmith! And when he does his magic with words with that beautiful voice of his, a combination made in heaven!
I agree with him on what is happening in publishing, although do not necessarily believe that it will be the end of publishing. Since my publishing company entered into the publishing industry only in the past few years, we came in when all of the publishing changes were already happening. Because we are in a niche (we publish little books), we have a different prospective than a traditional publisher.
Self-publishing has been around for years but only recently has the technology allowed the general author population the opportunity to put out their writing. (Along as people are not getting ripped off) that opportunity to get yourself out there is fantastic. But there will always be people who will want to have a real book in hand and therefore publishing of books will keep on going. While clearly not in the same way as before, publishing will have to change with the times to survive. It may be that companies will have to go into niches to survive, but maybe because I’m older, but I believe there will always be the need for real books!
.-= Candace Davenport´s last blog ..Are You An Author, Small Publisher, Or Independent Book Seller? How Can We All Work Together? =-.
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It may be the end of an era, but that just means the beginning of a new one. I have no idea where things are going, but on most days I’m convinced this change is not exactly “the black moment” it could be.
For one thing, it’s got to be encouraging that people WANT to read. They do it on all kinds of devices in addition to books, but that just means they want to read NOW, when they want to, and not when the book arrives in the store. There’s got to be a way to accomodate that.
And maybe the proliferation of self-publishing options will actually INCREASE the worth of traditionally published books. People tend to value things that are considered “exclusive”, so the brand of the author, and the publisher, will make a huge difference in that.
Of course, maybe I’ll feel differently tomorrow! :)
.-= Donna Cummings´s last blog ..Myth #7 =-.
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While there are many self publishing options, a self published book is not necessarily a good book. It’s possible that readers will still want to go with the publishing names they trust because they know they’ll get a quality read.
And, as you say, there has to be some way of filtering the millions of choices.
.-= Jessica Baverstock – Creativity’s Workshop´s last blog ..Moving Day =-.
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Kathleen,
I am a firm believer in the end of the publishing era as we know it. And having worked with many individuals on all ends of this debate, I’ve seen enough to feel confident in saying this.
Technology has brought all of us the ability to publish our own work and develop an audience. At the same time, publishing houses continue to pay in advance for books with no pre-established audience, and to lose money in doing so. Many of them have understood that that it makes more sense from a business perspective to scout out titles that have already been vetted by the public and have demonstrated in advance their ability to sell, and are actually opening their own self-publishing affiliates to create pools to scout from. Meanwhile, a growing number of writers are using digital tools to bypass publishers and bring their work directly to readers, creating micro-niches and new channels of distribution that they can control. With advances dropping for all but the super-stars, very little marketing support from publishers for most titles and the ever-narrowing criteria for what will “break in”, this makes sense for writers, too. As does the phrase Jane Friedman brought us from BEA10: “Authorpreneur.”
I hope the evolution will continue, and I am eager to see the publishing industry transform into something more viable and in line with today’s reality. I only hope that in the process, we all continue striving to maintain high standards for good writing.
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Jessica – you have an important point, but I think we all need to remember that not everything that’s good gets published, and not everything that gets published is good!
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(First, bless those who have served. Don’t nod respect for the men and women who have died as much as nod respect that such people lived.)
About books: In any industry, change is always happening. It’s unpredictable for the most part which makes it a scary monster.
But know this: since people will always write and people will always read we’ll just need to persevere.
I was in the movie business for always 20 years. When V.C.R.’s came out in the early eighties, everyone panicked that movie theaters would die off. I mean, you can actually rent a movie and watch it in your living room. Wow! Who would pay more to go out and watch a movie with strangers coughing and talking. What about the “pause” button. Wow!
But theaters persevered. Then DVD came along. VHS distributors were scared. The smart ones adapted. We did. We were one of the few who paid serious attention to the trends and turned to DVD early. After fazing VHS out (for our company) in early 2001-2002 we made a fortune on DVD.
All through this the theaters survived. Look at them now. What did Avatar and Iron Man 2 do recently at the box office?
Everything will be fine. Books will always be there. Stories will always be written. No need for panic. Just adjust. Be ready. Nothing to fear here.
“Do not look back in anger, or forward in fear, but around in awareness.” ~James Thurber
.-= Daryl Sedore´s last blog ..Writers Block is a Lie =-.
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Personally, I think when everything shakes out, the only major difference will be that smaller authors have an outlet now, that costs them less money.
Sure, overall quality will diminish, but that makes the good stuff stand out all the more!
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Wow! Darryl, excellent point.
All of those industries (except VHS of course) continue to thrive. There are certain movies I go to see in theaters because I want to see them on the big screen and certain movies I wait for the DVD. So, I may go to the theater to see a film maybe two or three times a year (depending on what’s playing) but I still do go to the theater.
Readers will do the same.
Maybe a lot of their immediate reading is taken up in blogs and other on-line sources but they will still want to read a book, whether it’s the latest hardcover, or the trade paperback or borrowing from the library. There will be authors they will rush to get the hardback copy, others they’ll wait for the trade paperback.
If publishers are patient and paying attention to capitalize on trends, they’ll survive and so will authors.
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Wasn’t it Mark Twain who said history doesn’t repeat itself, it rhymes?
In the past fifteen years, I’ve seen the people at the top of their respective food chains bemoan the death of the film industry, the music industry, and now, publishing. None of those things is dying, and they never will, but their faces are going to change dramatically. I’d argue that movies are just as interesting as they were thirty years ago, but they’re more innovative, and music choices are both broader and narrower (more niche) at the same time. Surely, those are good things.
When I picked up my Kindle, I wondered how the publishing world was going to survive. $9.95 for a book? Then I found a charming, addictive little YA trilogy, and discovered one path for profit: suck a reader in with the first ebook, and they’ll buy high-margin hard covers to get the rest of the series if you don’t make them available electronically. As with every evolving industry, the publishers with the best content and the smartest marketing departments will win. It really is that simple.
.-= Missives From Suburbia´s last blog ..The Blog Post in Which I’m So Boring, All I Do is Talk About the Weather =-.
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I agree–and not just because I’m an author and hope I still have a job in the years to come! :-) My parents worked in publishing 30 years ago, and these exact same articles were being written then about how the industry was ‘in crisis’ and wouldn’t survive another year. Things will change, of course, and publishing will evolve. But from the very earliest times, humans have needed stories to make sense of our world. That won’t change. I really believe that, or I wouldn’t be in this business. And as long as that’s true, somehow publishers and authors are going to survive.
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“It may be the end of an era, but that just means the beginning of a new one.”
I agree with Donna completely.
People are always resistant to change (myself included!) but usually in the long run society rejects the changes that are bad and moves toward the changes that are good. I have faith that this is no different. Of course, only time will tell. :)
.-= Kristan´s last blog ..Internal juggle =-.
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My thought on the future of publishing is that, while there are thousands of wonderful, recipe-laden food blogs out there, I still buy cookbooks. Good stuff can be found online. The best is often still in a physical book. While I don’t doubt that the industry is changing, I don’t think it’s disintegrating.
When it comes to consumer goods, free still isn’t necessarily better.
.-= Hillary Manton Lodge´s last blog ..Magic in a muffin tin =-.
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The reassurance is in Mr. K’s last line:
“And that is the future of publishing: 18 million authors in America, each with an average of 14 readers, eight of whom are blood relatives. Average annual earnings: $1.75.”
Great books will rise to the top. Terrible books will be dead in the water. We’ll still need publishing houses, but they’ll have to do things a little differently to survive. They’ll have to adapt the way the music industry adapted ten years ago when Napster and downloading songs came along. They’ve figured it out and they’re doing just fine.
.-= Erika Robuck´s last blog ..Interview: Allison Winn Scotch =-.
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I’m excited about the future of books and writing. It is certainly undergoing change and their are new and interesting opportunities at every turn but what hasn’t changed is that people love good quality stories. It is just a matter of finding new ways of delivering them to the right audience.
Thanks for sharing this post and it was great to read some of the comments here and find out what others are thinking.
.-= Cassandra Jade´s last blog ..Stuck In My Head =-.
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“And that is the future of publishing: 18 million authors in America, each with an average of 14 readers, eight of whom are blood relatives. Average annual earnings: $1.75.”
A chorus of musicians: “Welcome to our life.”
.-= Tom Marcinko´s last blog ..Better to have loved and ‘Lost’ (with finale spoilers) =-.
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